Yapay zeka daha ileri seviyeye ne zaman gelir?

Pratik bir yapay genel zeka ortaya çıktı mı bilin ki bütün işler otomasyonlaşmaya müsait olacaktır. Peki yapay genel zeka ne zaman ortaya çıkacak? Bilmiyoruz. Ancak yakınız. Bazı tahminler şunlar:

Rob Bensinger (MIRI Berkeley)
----> AGI: ~2023-42
Ben Goertzel (SingularityNET, OpenCog)
----> AGI: ~2026-27
Jacob Cannell (Vast. ai, lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2026-32
Richard Sutton (Deepmind Alberta)
----> AGI: ~2027-32?
Jim Keller (Tenstorrent)
----> AGI: ~2027-32?
Nathan Helm-Burger (AI alignment researcher; lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2027-37
Geordie Rose (D-Wave, Sanctuary AI)
----> AGI: ~2028
Cathie Wood (ARKInvest)
----> AGI: ~2028-34
Aran Komatsuzaki (EleutherAI; was research intern at Google)
----> AGI: ~2028-38?
Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder and chief scientist)
----> AGI: ~2028-40
Ray Kurzweil (Google)
----> AGI: <2029
Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX)
----> AGI: <2029
Brent Oster (Orbai)
----> AGI: ~2029
Vernor Vinge (Mathematician, computer scientist, sci-fi-author)
----> AGI: <2030
John Carmack (Keen Technologies)
----> AGI: ~2030
Connor Leahy (EleutherAI, Conjecture)
----> AGI: ~2030
Matthew Griffin (Futurist, 311 Institute)
----> AGI: ~2030
Louis Rosenberg (Unanimous AI)
----> AGI: ~2030
Ash Jafari (Ex-Nvidia-Analyst, Futurist)
----> AGI: ~2030
Tony Czarnecki (Managing Partner of Sustensis)
----> AGI: ~2030
Ross Nordby (AI researcher; Lesswrong-author)
----> AGI: ~2030
Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI)
----> AGI: ~2030-35?
Hans Moravec (Carnegie Mellon University)
----> AGI: ~2030-40
Jürgen Schmidhuber (NNAISENSE)
----> AGI: ~2030-47?
Eric Schmidt (Ex-Google Chairman)
----> AGI: ~2031-41
Sam Altman (OpenAI)
----> AGI: <2032?
Charles Simon (CEO of Future AI)
----> AGI: <2032
Anders Sandberg (Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford)
----> AGI: ~2032?
Matt Welsh (Ex-google engineering director)
----> AGI: ~2032?
Siméon Campos (Founder CEffisciences & SaferAI)
----> AGI: ~2032
Yann LeCun (Meta)
----> AGI: ~2032-37
Chamath Palihapitiya (CEO of Social Capital)
----> AGI: ~2032-37
Demis Hassabis (DeepMind)
----> AGI: ~2032-42
Robert Miles (Youtube channel about AI Safety)
----> AGI: ~2032-42
OpenAi
----> AGI: <2035
Jie Tang (Prof. at Tsinghua University, Wu-Dao 2 Leader)
----> AGI: ~2035
Max Roser (Programme Director, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford)
----> AGI: ~2040
Jeff Hawkins (Numenta)
----> AGI: ~2040-50

METACULUS:
----> weak AGI: 2027 (January 9, 2023)
----> AGI: 2038 (January 9, 2023)